I thought I’d dig a bit deeper into the published 2016 statistics. I’ve found that analysing and grouping the figures provides a more accurate picture of the ‘State of the JW Nation’, and provides a number of interesting insights.
Watchtower Society states 2%. This is calculated using the 2015 Average Publishers and the 2014 Average Publishers and ROUNDED UP to the nearest full percentage point. The percentage increase is actually 1.52%.
The countries/territories with increases over 8% are:
Bhutan [100%]; Saba [71.43%]; Kosrae [17.65%]; Timor-Leste [17.36%]; Sudan [15.53%]; Bangladesh [15.17%]; Mayotte [13.08%]; Rodrigues [11.63%]; Cambodia [11.47%]; Gambia [10.58%]; Falkland Islands [10.00%]; Nepal [9.98%]; St. Barthelemy [8.33%]; Angola [8.15%].
Other than Angola (with 111,123 publishers), and Nepal (with 2,204 publishers) all the above countries have very small (under 900) publisher populations. It is interesting to note that most of the high-increase lands are small island nations, or poor African and Asian countries.
There are 53 countries with a NEGATIVE increase, and 9 countries with 0% increase, and 17 countries with less than 0.5% increase. Watchtower reports these as 42 Negative, and 37 with 0% increase.
Ease of Conversion:
This is measured in number of hours per baptism.
There are 20 territories where there were NO BAPTISMS. Yet 356,442 hours were spent preaching. Most of these are small island nations.
Luxembourg needs 60,516 preaching hours per baptism. In contrast, South Sudan only requires 2,233 hours of preaching per baptism.
Leavers are calculated as 2014 Average Publishers + Baptisms – 2015 Average Publishers. This is the average of ALL leavers, and includes Deaths, Disfellowshipped/Disassociated, and Inactive/Non-Reporting Publishers.
126,087 ‘leavers’ from 29 countries where the ‘leaver count’ is greater than 1000. Most of these countries are in the Americas, Europe, and a few Afrcan countries. The list is as follows:
United States of America; Congo, Dem. Republic of; Ukraine; Brazil; Malawi; Zambia; Mexico; Italy; Cuba; Korea, Republic of; Nigeria; Poland; Japan; Argentina; Venezuela; Colombia; South Africa; Ecuador; Britain; Germany; Peru; Chile; Spain; Philippines; Mozambique; Australia; Canada; Portugal; France.
Leavers as a percentage of Baptisms:
There are 62 countries where the number of people leaving EXCEDE or EQUAL the number of baptisms (100%+).
In Antigua (633.33%), six times more people are ‘leaving’ than are joining. In the Ukraine (314.76%), three times more people are leaving than joining.
16 more countries have percentages nearing parity (80% or more).
1. Eastern Europe has the largest NEGATIVE increase (-2.38%), with East Asia and NW Oceania also in NEGATIVE GROWTH territory.
2. Africa and Eastern Europe have the HIGHEST number of leavers as a percentage of 2015 Average Publishers.
3. Only Russia and the ’30 Other Lands’ had less that 0% leaving – indicating relatively strong growth in these regions.
4. East Asia is the region where it takes the most hours on average to baptise one person (22,911 hrs). Other areas where the preaching hours per baptism are greater than 10,000 are: North Asia (Russia); Northern Europe; Southern Europe; Western Europe; NW Oceania.
5. Average preaching hours per Publisher per Month were highest in the ’30 Other Lands’ with 40 hours per publisher. Average preaching hours per Publisher per Month are lowest in Australia/New Zealand, Europe, and Africa.
6. Australia/New Zealand and Europe have the FEWEST Pioneers to Publishers. In Australia/New Zealand region there is 1 pioneer for every 11.7 publishers. In contrast in East Asia there is 1 Pioneer for every 3 publishers.
7. The regions where the number of people ‘leaving’ outstrip (>100%) or nearly outstrip (between 75% and 99%) the number of baptisms are: Eastern Europe (207.14%); NW Oceania (116.67%); East Asia (113.81%); Northern Europe (89.57%); Australia/New Zealand (84.47%); Caribbean (80.95%); Southern Europe (78.88%).
Europe, Australia/New Zealand, NW Oceania, East Asia, and Caribbean are in trouble from a nett growth perspective.
Africa is ‘under pressure’ from a ‘Conversion Rate’ perspective.
Overall increases are greater from impoverished countries where a larger percentage of the population is financially ‘poor’ and relatively uneducated compared to the wealthier nations.
Overall decreases are seen in the affluent nations where the per capita income is higher, with easy access to educational resources and social media over the internet.